Sources & methodology
What's behind these numbers
Every figure in this app is either a real, sourced fact, a real dollar range modeled down to one representative number, or a clearly placeholder estimate. This page says plainly which is which, and where each one came from, no finance or tax jargon required.
The federal tax credit is $0 if you buy your system
The 30% federal solar tax credit that used to apply to homeowner-purchased systems was repealed by law in July 2025, effective for any system installed after December 31, 2025. There's no partial credit and no grace period. That's why this app shows $0 for the federal credit on a cash or loan purchase, not because it forgot to add it.
A related credit technically still exists for leased/PPA systems, but it's claimed by the leasing company, not you. Whether any of that value gets passed through as a lower monthly payment depends entirely on the installer, so this app doesn't guess at a pass-through and shows $0 here too.
This is general information, not tax advice. Confirm current eligibility with a tax professional before making a decision.
How your utility is determined
Once your address has real coordinates (from the Mapbox lookup on the Property step), this app checks them against the Public Utility Commission of Texas's own public electric service-area boundary maps: a genuine point-in-polygon match against real utility territory, not a guess from your city name. PUCT itself labels this data "unofficial," so treat it as the best available public source, not a legal record.
Before that lookup resolves (or if it can't reach an address at all, e.g. no coordinates yet), this app falls back to a hand-checked table of roughly 40 major Texas cities, and after that, to a rough guess. The Property step always tells you plainly which of these three applies to your result, rather than presenting an estimate as settled fact.
Your utility's delivery charge (TDU rate)
No matter which retail electricity plan you pick, a regulated delivery company (a "TDU") still owns the poles and wires to your house, and charges a fixed fee for that, identical across every plan in your area. This app adds that charge on top of whichever plan you're comparing, using the current published rate for your utility:
The state regulator approves routine updates to these twice a year (March 1 and September 1), and a utility can occasionally get an out-of-cycle increase approved too. Oncor did in 2026. These rates will drift out of date over time; treat them as recently accurate rather than permanently fixed.
How the system cost estimate is modeled
Before you upload a real quote or type in your own price, this app guesses your system's cost using a flat $2.85 per watt. That number didn't come from a "solar cost calculator" website. Several of those were checked first and rejected, because they're lead-generation marketplaces whose prices are self-selected toward competitively-priced installer quotes (one even admits this directly), and one had a number that didn't match its own stated example.
Instead, this is grounded in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Annual Technology Baseline, which prices real system and labor cost components directly rather than aggregating marketing quotes: their most recent published figure is $2.68/watt (2023 data). Multiple 2026 sources agree solar panel tariffs have pushed costs up roughly 10-15% since then, which lands a defensible current estimate in the $2.75-$2.90/watt range. $2.85 sits inside that range.
$2.85/watt assumes the simplest, most common case: a standard asphalt shingle or metal roof. Solar Configuration also asks what your roof is actually made of, because that changes real install labor: EnergySage's own roof-material comparison ranks tile as the most labor-intensive material to mount panels on (tiles have to be individually removed and replaced with a mounting foot and flashing) and flat/low-slope roofs as moderately more involved (ballast or tilt-angle racking instead of standard mounts). A tile roof adds an estimated $0.15/watt here, based on a real-world $500-$2,000 premium cited for an 8kW system in one sourced cost guide; a flat roof adds an estimated $0.10/watt, a softer placeholder since no dollar-specific source was found for it. Wood shake and slate roofs aren't offered as options at all. In practice those usually need the roof itself addressed before solar goes on, which a per-watt price bump can't honestly represent.
This is still just an estimate, not a quote. It's replaced entirely the moment you enter or upload a real price from an actual installer.
How the loan numbers are modeled
Most solar-specific loans include a "dealer fee" that isn't part of the system's real cost. It gets rolled into what you actually finance, usually to subsidize a lower advertised interest rate elsewhere. This isn't a rumor: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has published research finding these fees commonly run 10-30% of the cash price (sometimes more), and a real 2024 Minnesota Attorney General lawsuit documented a specific loan with this exact mechanic.
Because of that trade-off, this app doesn't let you set an interest rate directly: you choose the dealer fee (via the slider on Solar Configuration) and a term, and the interest rate is derived from real, cited fee/rate pairs, including the case above. Nothing here is a quote from any specific lender.
How the lease numbers are modeled
With a lease, a third party owns the system. You pay $0 upfront and a monthly fee instead, priced below what the utility would charge for that same energy (modeled here at roughly 20% below), which is why lease savings start on day one instead of after a payback period. Real lease terms cluster around 20-25 years, so that's the choice offered on Solar Configuration.
That monthly fee typically increases a little every year (an "escalator"), most commonly by around 2-3%, but some leases are sold with a flat, non-increasing payment instead, which several sources call the better deal when it's available. Rather than a slider implying more precision than real contracts actually offer, this app gives you that same two-way choice: a flat payment, or a typical ~2.5%/yr increase.
Why 3.5% assumed utility rate growth?
The 25-year savings chart on your Results page assumes electricity rates keep rising 3.5% a year, the same figure a real, currently operating Texas solar calculator uses in its own published projections, so it isn't an inflated sales-pitch number.
To double-check that, this app separately computed a real historical rate directly from the state regulator's own numbers: Texas's official statewide average residential rate in January 2005 versus today works out to about 3.27% a year, compounded, close to the 3.5% assumption. Both figures are shown side by side on your Results page rather than picking just one.
Where the electricity plan data comes from
Texas's official plan-comparison site (Power to Choose) doesn't offer a public, documented way for an app like this to pull plans automatically and reliably. Rather than depend on something that could silently break for every visitor, the plans shown here are a manually reviewed sample: real, current plans sourced from each provider's own Electricity Facts Label, refreshed periodically by hand instead of live on every visit.
That means this isn't an exhaustive list of every plan available in your area, and coverage is currently limited to a couple of Texas utility territories, with more added over time. This app receives no payment from any provider for including, ranking, or recommending their plans. Nothing shown is sponsored placement.
Where the hail-risk note on the Property step comes from
The hail-risk badge you see right after looking up an address comes from FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — a free, federally published, county-level hazard dataset, refreshed roughly once a year. Real figures were collected for the roughly 35 Texas counties this app can currently resolve a city to (the same major-city list its utility lookup uses); a city outside that table shows Texas's real statewide figure instead of guessing at a specific county.
This shows FEMA's defined rating tier (Very High / Relatively High / Relatively Moderate / Relatively Low / Very Low), not FEMA's raw numeric risk score — the exact meaning of that number wasn't something this app could confirm with confidence, and a real category beats a precise-looking number this app isn't sure how to interpret.
This is deliberately informational only: it doesn't change any dollar figure elsewhere in this app. A credible hail-damage cost model (insurance premium impact, expected panel-replacement cost over 25 years) would need actuarial-grade data that mostly sits behind insurance-industry paywalls, and this app would rather show you real, honest context than a guessed number dressed up as a cost estimate.
Why solar buyback rates matter so much
Texas doesn't have net metering as a matter of law, so every retail electric provider sets its own export credit, usually well below the retail rate, and most homes don't self-consume most of what their panels produce. That mismatch is also exactly why this app doesn't currently price a battery into your numbers, and why exported credit is capped so your bill can never go negative.
What this app can't price yet
This app prices a lot of real, sourced detail into your estimate. It doesn't price everything. Battery storage, real-time and interval buyback pricing, free-nights and time-of-use plans, surge and wholesale-indexed plans, prepaid plans, and community solar are all currently out of reach, for reasons that come down to the same core problem: pricing them accurately means pricing them against details specific to your provider that most homeowners and most Electricity Facts Labels don't hand over.
What's still placeholder data
A few things in this preview are intentionally simplified stand-ins for a real API or a real site inspection that a finished product would eventually use instead:
- Sun exposure and peak sun hours on the Property step are generated from your address as a placeholder unless this deployment has an NREL API key configured, in which case they're a real figure for your exact location instead. See below.
- Solar production uses a real, weather-data-based model (NREL's PVWatts) when this deployment has an API key configured, and a simplified placeholder formula otherwise. The Solar Configuration page tells you which one is active for your estimate.
- Your monthly usage shape across the year (higher in summer, lower in spring/fall) is a hand-picked seasonal curve, not pulled from a real utility data source.